LS Elections 2014- The MNS Effect in Maharashtra

With the impending Lok Sabha elections in first half of 2014, the political parties are busy getting their act right. I have closely watched the politics in Maharashtra since my childhood. Maharashtra is one of the few Indian states where local sentiments influence the politics as much as the national sentiments do. First time, Sharad Pawar formed the government led by a regional party as early as in 1978.

 

BJP and Shiv Sena have one of the oldest alliance in history of Indian politics. The alliance dates back as long as 1984 and is termed as one of the most smooth and successful alliance in Indian politics. The alliance has benefited both parties in Parliament as well as Assembly elections.

Things were going pretty well for the two parties until in 2006 Shiv Sena split and a new party named Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) led by none other than (erstwhile) Shiv Sena Supremo Balasaheb Thakre's nephew, was formed.

The two parties (Shiv Sena and MNS) had the same DNA and were competing for "Sons of the Soil" issues. Till 2008, MNS was just another political party vying for people's attention. But, as the Parliament and Assembly elections of 2009 approached, MNS took a more aggressive stand on various local issues. This included issues related to the migration of people from other parts of the country to Mumbai, more respect for Marathi language and so on. This led to a divide in the vote share of Shiv Sena and helped the Congress alliance grab more seats in Parliament elections and also to retain Power in the Maharashtra Assembly elections of 2009. There were as little as 9 Lok Sabha seats where a divide in votes helped the Congress alliance win.

 

2009 LS Seats Influenced by MNS:

MNS did not win any seat but, it certainly denied NDA 9 seats less than what it could have won. Even though Twitterati have their own opinion about him, none could deny that it was a result of the MNS chief Raj Thakrey's charisma. The figures clearly show that majority of voters in these constituencies voted against the Congress alliance, but, they still ended up with a United Progressive Alliance (UPA) MP.

For 2014 LS elections, NDA led by BJP has nominated Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi as its Prime Ministerial candidate. There is a distinct enthusiasm amongst different sections of society about his candidature. Narendra Modi is busy touring the distant parts of the country to garner support for the BJP and NDA. At this very time, the MNS that was dormant for last so many months has again raked up the issue of toll collection on roads and is back in the headlines of news papers and media channels alike. On 9th February, MNS organized a huge rally in Pune that was addressed by Raj Thakrey.

MNS rally in Pune: 9th February 2014 pic.twitter.com/cTrWYJG623
— Anil Shidore (@anilshidore) February 9, 2014

According to the media reports, attempts made by various political figures to bring Shiv Sena and MNS together have failed. MNS has an improved organization on the ground as compared to what it had in 2009 and the popularity of MNS chief can cause sizeable damage to NDA.

This parliament election is very different than the ones that took place in the past. Today multiple challenges staring the country in its face. To handle these challenges, the country needs a strong government that can take decisions on its own and is not dependent on unnatural allies. The electorate should keep issues of national importance in mind while voting for the general elections. The term of Maharashtra Assembly is ending in December 2014 and so the Assembly elections will be held sometimes in the second half of 2014. These elections will provide the electorate an opportunity to vote on the local issues. What is needed is for the people to vote on the basis of national issues in the general elections and on the basis of local issues in the Assembly elections.

Million dollar question is:

Will the electorate understand this and resort to tactical voting?